Andhra Pradesh Exit Polls Result 2024 Live: Pollsters predict clear majority for NDA, YSRCP lags behind in Lok Sabha elections (2024)

"Andhra is in a very peculiar condition because of which, even the bitterness of the bifurcation appears as a minor problem. But thanks to the 10 years that have already passed by, people are realising the shallowness of the BJP government.(Prime Minister Narendra) Modi has not done anything for the promised special category status. He laid the foundation stone for the capital (Amravati), but has done nothing more on that front too. He promised the completion of the Polavaram project (multi-purpose irrigation project on the Godavari) but provided no funds. People are now realising that the BJP, the TDP, and the YSRCP are all non-performers.

The BJP, the TDP or the YSRCP, no one is diligent in pursuing the state’s interests. The Congress has a bright chance, and the future belongs to it," Sharmila told The Indian Express earlier

There was a need when I went there as a tyrant was ruling Telangana. It was important to bring his government down and I played my part in it by undertaking a 3,800-km padayatra to sharpen the anti-incumbency against him. However, simultaneously the Congress also grew due to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, electoral success in neighbouring Karnataka and Revanth Reddy’s hard work. It was important for me to step down there as we did not want to split the Congress’s vote bank.

Kapus

At 18% of Andhra’s population, Kapus are numerically the largest community in the state. While sub-classes of the community, constituting 15% of Kapus, fall under the general category, the remaining come under Backward Classes. Kapus are concentrated mainly in coastal Andhra’s East and West Godavari districts.

The community, which has a long-standing grouse with the state’s political parties over their disproportionate representation, has found new impetus with JSP chief Pawan Kalyan’s entry into the political arena. Traditionally opposed to the Kammas, the Kapus this time are seen to be rallying behind the TDP given its alliance with the JSP.

Kammas

Though numerically not significant, the community has been fiercely behind the TDP since its inception in the 1980s by former CM NT Rama Rao, known as NTR. Constituting around 6% of the state’s population, the community is concentrated along the coast in Krishna, Prakasam and Guntur districts, and parts of the Rayalaseema region in Anantapur, Chittoor and Tirupati districts.

Some of the tallest leaders of Andhra politics like NTR, Chandrababu Naidu belong to the community, which is seen to be at loggerheads with the Kapus, who numerically outnumber them.

Andhra Pradesh, since Telangana was carved out of it in 2014, has seen both regional parties – the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) – enjoy power for a term each.

Community loyalties have been the central point of elections in the state and the upcoming simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls on Monday are likely to be no different. However, the political realignment in the state, among other factors like anti-incumbency and local issues, has made the poll more intriguing. While the YSRCP, which is seeking a second straight term, has gone it alone, the TDP has joined hands with Pawan Kalyan’s JanaSena Party (JSP) and the BJP. The entry of the Congress, which has negligible presence in the state, through Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy’s sister, Y S Sharmila, has added another layer of intrigue.

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I ended last week’s column with the words “As the election rolled through the seven phases, the battle was joined between those determined to protect the status quo and those determined to disrupt the status quo.” Counting of votes is two days away, and we will know whether the plurality (or majority) of the people desire change or are happy to maintain the status quo.

Comfort In Status Quo

There are certainly many people who desire change but I think there are also many people who do not want change. I suppose it is because the no-changers fear change may make their lives worse; or because the unknown is more frightening than the known; or because they fear that change in one aspect will affect other aspects of life — for example, breaking custom may invite the community’s wrath. There is a certain comfort in the status quo.

While exit polls predicted BJP making big gains in southern states, Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy confidence that the Congress will win at least 10 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats and expressed confidence that INDIA bloc will form government.

While the BJP is claiming to win four-five seats, the BRS may not get more than one and the AIMIM would retain the Hyderabad LS constituency. The remaining seats, at least 10, would go to the Congress, Revanth Reddy told PTI. Reddy said BJP may not get more than 240 seats and Rahul Gandhi would become PM.

Alleging that the BJP-led NDA government did not do anything substantial for the state during the last 10 years, the chief minister said he would make efforts to see that crucial portfolios in the Union Cabinet are allotted to Telangana if the INDI Alliance forms a government.
He said it was the late S Jaipal Reddy who got the metro rail project to Hyderabad when he was a union minister.

With the state government having invited Sonia Gandhi for the state formation day celebrations to be held on Sunday, he said there would be a message from the former Congress president if she is not able to attend the event due to health reasons. The Telangana people want the presence of Sonia Gandhi, he said.

With PTI inputs

With the exit polls predicting a remarkable third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the subsequent weeks will witness loud discourse about the “integrity of public institutions”. The Congress party, which reflected zero depth and a lack of vision, will target the electoral process, the media and even the average Indian voter. Instead of introspecting, it will focus on finding a scapegoat and fixing the blame for its third consecutive defeat in the national elections.

The 2024 general election and the exit poll results offer three important takeaways. Significantly, the political vocabulary of the country under PM Modi and the BJP has undergone a fundamental transformation.

Anti-incumbency to pro-incumbency

Going by the numbers reflected in the exit polls, on June 4, PM Modi is set to return — a leader with over two decades of experience in office. There have been prime ministers in the country’s past who have served longer terms. But both as chief minister and prime minister, Narendra Modi will become one of the most popular and undefeated elected executive leaders in the history of Indian politics.

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AS RESULT DAY comes near, postal ballots have come to the fore in Andhra Pradesh, which voted in simultaneous Assembly and Lok Sabha elections on May 13. On Wednesday, after the ruling YSRCP moved the Election Commission (EC) in this regard, the poll panel withdrew its instructions that postal ballots would be considered valid even if they do not have the signature of the Returning Officer (RO).

Why have postal ballots gained prominence in the state?

The exit polls announced yesterday predicted big gains for the BJP in South. The saffron party is likely to make inroads in Tamil Nadu, Kerala where it historically never gained a single seat.

Between June 1 and June 4, when the results will be declared,it will be these exit polls that will keep parties either hoping or despairing. So, how close were the exit polls in the past two general elections, 2014 and 2019, which were both won by the Narendra Modi-led BJP by huge margins? While the 2014 Lok Sabha polls were held between April 7 and May 12, with the results announced on May 16, the 2019 edition was from April 11 to May 19, and the results came out on May 23.

In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats – failing to estimate the extent of the ‘Modi wave’ that year, which saw the NDA finishing with 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44.

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120 – again underestimating the NDA’s performance, which won 353 seats in all. The UPA got 93. Of these, the BJP won 303, and the Congress 52.

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Meanwhile, vote counting is underway in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. The early trends show Sikkim Krantikari Morcha leading in 16 of 32 seats in Sikkim while BJP with 10 "unopposed" wins leads in 17 seats in Arunachal Pradesh.

Follow LIVE updates here: Sikkim Assembly Election Result 2024 Live

Arunachal Pradesh Assembly Election Result 2024 Live

After the exit polls predicted the TDP-Jana Sena Party gaining a thumping victory in Andhra Pradesh, the enthusiasm of party supporters knew no bounds. When TDP-chief Chandrababu Naidu arrived Gannavaram airport earlier, party supporters welcomed him with cheers

Watch video:

VIDEO | Former Andhra Pradesh CM and TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu (@ncbn) arrived at Gannavaram airport earlier today. pic.twitter.com/lxAoW7PeDc

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) June 1, 2024

While overall the exit polls paint a positive picture for the BJP-led NDA,the party will be particularly happy if the predictions hold true for the South.

Good morning! The exit polls results announced yesterday predicted BJP making big gains in Andhra Pradesh.

Catch up with the predictions here:

The TDP-Jana Sena Party, boosted by an alliance with the BJP, was seen as making big gains in the state, and the exit polls gave the NDA up to 22 seats, if not more, out of 25. In 2019, the YSRCP had won 22 seats.

If the YSRCP ends up with as little as predicted, it would mean that the anti-incumbency factor held strong, despite its attempts to dodge that with mass change of candidates. It would also mean that the NDA alliance led by the TDP got its poll arithmetic right in terms of seat-sharing.

Jan Ki Baat: BJP: 2-3 seats, TDP (NDA): 10-14 seats, YSRCP: 8-13 seats

PMARQ: NDA: 19-22 seats, YSRCP: 5-8 seats

News18 Mega Exit Poll: NDA: 19-22 seats, YSRCP: 5-8 seats

ABP-Cvoter: NDA: 21-25 seats, YSRCP: 0-4 seats

India Today-Axis My India: NDA: 21-23 seats, YSRCP: 2-4 seats, INDIA Bloc: Zero seats

Today's Chanakya: TDP (NDA): 22 ± 3 seats, YSRCP: 3 ± 3 seats, Congress/Other Parties: 0 seats

India News D-Dynamics: NDA: 18 seats, YSRCP: 7 seats, INDIA Bloc: 0 seats

Here is what Times Now, ETG Research predicts:

BJP: 9 - 31%

INC: 7 - 36%

Others: 1 - 33%

Here is what Times Now, ETG Research says:

YSRCP: 14

BJP : 11

Congress : 0

Others: 0

With most surveys predicting a victory for the TDP. Here's what it says:

??????? ????? ????????? ?????? ????? ????? "Todays Chanakya". ??????? 22 -25 ???? ??????, YSRCP?? 0-3 ???? ?????? #EndOfYCP #TDPJSPBJPWinning #AndhraPradesh pic.twitter.com/qmYpXdfbM3

— Telugu Desam Party (@JaiTDP) June 1, 2024

According to the News18 mega exit poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to make significant strides in the southern states of India during the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The exit poll has predicted that the BJP will emerge as the single-largest party in South India, winning between 36 to 39 seats.

The poll results suggest a shift in the political landscape of the southern states, which have traditionally been dominated by regional and national opposition parties. The Congress party is expected to win 31 to 34 seats, according to the exit poll data.

In total, there are 130 Lok Sabha seats in the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Puduch*erry.

It is important to note that exit polls, while providing a snapshot of voter sentiment, may not always accurately reflect the final election outcomes.

As the pollsters come out with their predictions soon, we take a look at what The Indian Express readers feel will be the outcome of these polls.

Jan Ki Baat: BJP: 2-3 seats,TDP (NDA): 10-14 seats, YSRCP: 8-13 seats

PMARQ: NDA: 19-22 seats YSRCP: 5-8 seats

News18 Mega Exit Poll: NDA: 19-22 seats YSRCP: 5-8 seats

ABP-Cvoter: NDA: 21-25 seats YSRCP: 0-4 seats

As per Jan Ki BAAT Exit Poll 2024

BJP 2-3

TDP 10-14 ( NDA)

YSRCP 13-8

The upcoming elections in Andhra Pradesh, which has 25 seats, could have a significant impact on the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). While the I.N.D.I.A. alliance is predicted to secure a negligible 3.3% vote share, the National Democratic Alliance's (NDA) partnership with Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is likely to give the coalition a seat share of 21-25 seats, with a vote share of 52.9%, as per the ABP-C Voter Exit Polls 2024.

On the other hand, Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), which had swept the previous elections, is predicted to lose ground, winning only 0 to 4 seats. However, the party is still expected to garner a substantial 41.7% of the total valid votes, as per the survey.

The Andhra Pradesh Land Titling Act became the latest flashpoint between the ruling YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP). On May 5, following the instructions of the Election Commission, the Andhra Pradesh CID registered a case against TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu and his son and TDP general secretary N Lokesh Naidu for allegedly making “false’’ statements against the Act.

A YSRCP delegation that met the EC alleged that the TDP has started making Interactive Voice Recording calls over which Naidu tells voters to not vote for the YSRCP as its leader and Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy “would take away their wealth” through the Act. Read More

If Lok Sabha elections were held in February, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandrababu Naidu would be likely to win 17 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, the India Today Mood of the Nation (MOTN) poll predicted. On the other hand, the ruling Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP) may win 8 Lok Sabha seats.
The Mood of the Nation's February 2024 edition was based on a survey of 35,801 respondents in all Lok Sabha seats. The poll was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024.

Amalapuramin the newly created Konaseema district in central Andhra is an example of how TDP chief NChandrababu Naidu, who appeared down and out last year, was hoping to consolidate anti-incumbency votes across the state where Lok Sabha and Assembly polls will be held on Monday. With rural voters seemingly backing Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, largely because of his government’s welfare schemes, the Opposition NDA alliance of the TDP,BJP and the JanaSena Party (JSP) had its task cut out.

However, the NDA’s ace was PM Modi’s popularityand it will be hoping that will pay dividends in the urban and semi-urban areas. Though the BJP has little organisational presence in the state, the NDA parties are so confident of their ability of allies to transfer votes among themselves that of the five Lok Sabha seats in the East and West Godavari districts, two have been allotted to the BJP — Naraspuram andRajahmundry(state BJP chiefD Purandeswari is contesting). Read More

The Kapus are holding their cards close to their chest this time.

“There is a lot of dissent among Kapus over the lack of jobs and rising prices of essential commodities,” says a Kapu leader inNarsapuram. Dr K P N Satya Prasad, a well-known physician from Bhimavaram who helped K Chiranjeevi found the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in August 2008, says the Kapus and other communities are showing signs of tilting towards the NDA. “Even among the beneficiaries of Jagan’s welfare schemes, not everyone is happy due to rising prices. But they form the core YSRCP support. If YSRCP candidates have to win, all the beneficiaries have to vote for them en masse, otherwise it will be difficult,” he says. The NDA has also targeted the doles handed out by the Jagan government, alleging they pushed the state into a financial mess.

The 2019Andhra PradeshAssembly elections saw 2.39 lakh postal ballots being cast. The average number of postal ballots per constituency added up to around 1,300 votes. However, since the YSRCP started “decentralised governance” through village and ward-level sachivalayams (secretariats), the number of government employees, who form the major chunk of the voters eligible for postal ballots, has seen a rise.

In the recently-concluded polls, an estimated 5.3 lakh people were eligible to vote through postal ballots, taking the average to around 4,000 per constituency.

As voting in the last phase of Lok Sabha polls 2024 draws to a close on Saturday (June 1), all eyes will be on the exit polls, which will give an idea of how India voted in the 18th general elections.

Theexit pollresults will start coming in after 6 pm on June 1 (Saturday). The counting of votes and result declaration will take place on June 4 (Tuesday). Voting across 543 constituencies took place in seven phases, starting on April 19.

Between June 1 and June 4, when the results will be declared,it will be these exit pollsthat will keep parties either hoping or despairing.

How close were theexit polls in the past two general elections, 2014 and 2019, which were both won by theNarendra Modi-ledBJPby huge margins? In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats – failing to estimate the extent of the ‘Modi wave’ that year, which saw the NDA finishing with 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44.

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120 – again underestimating the NDA’s performance, which won 353 seats in all. The UPA got 93. Of these, the BJP won 303, and the Congress 52. Read More